Daily Broad Market Recap – August 19, 2024


Market players seem to have woken up on the right side of the bed this week, as risk-on vibes led to strong gains for equities and higher-yielding currencies on Monday.

How did the rest of the asset classes fare?

Let’s take a look at the latest headlines and market performance:

Headlines:

  • BusinessNZ services index shot up from an upwardly revised 40.7 to 44.6 in July; Employment component edged higher from 45.7 to 46.6
  • Rightmove: U.K. property sellers’ asking prices were down by 1.5% m/m in August after a 0.4% downtick in July
  • Japan core machinery orders increased by 2.1% m/m in June after a 3.2% dip in May
  • ECB official Rehn pointed to negative growth risks as potential reason for September cut
  • U.S. CB leading index in July: -0.6% (-0.4% forecast, -0.2% previous)
  • New Zealand July trade balance swung from 585M NZD surplus to a deficit of 963M NZD as exports rose 14% and imports rose 8.5%
  • RBA monetary policy meeting minutes suggested that interest rates could stay steady for an extended period
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted a “bridging proposal” regarding ceasefire in Gaza, according to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Most asset classes were chillin’ like ice cream fillin’ during the Asian trading session, with the exception of bitcoin and crude oil which chalked up losses from the get-go.

BTC/USD nosedived to the $58,500 area before treading sideways until the London market hours, during which it took another tumble then pulled back up for the rest of the day.

Crude oil, on the other hand, went on a much steeper drop on reports of conflict mediation between Israel and Hamas, as well as global demand concerns. As it turned out, ceasefire talks in the Middle East may be making some progress, easing production concerns in the region.

U.S. equities were having a much better day, as indices recovered most of the losses from the other week’s meltdown, as both the S&P and Nasdaq closed more than 1% in the green.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView

Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView

The U.S. dollar was down in the dumps across the board, most notably against the Japanese yen which was off to a running start during Asian market hours.

Over the weekend, Japan reported a sharp rebound in core machinery orders for June while New Zealand printed an uptick in its BusinessNZ services index, sparking a positive start for the Kiwi as well.

There wasn’t much on the docket in terms of top-tier data points for other major economies, keeping volatility subdued during the first half of the London session. The dollar edged gradually lower for the rest of the day, except against the yen, on cautious remarks from FOMC member Kashkari and a pickup in risk-taking.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

  • Swiss trade balance at 6:00 am GMT
  • German PPI at 6:00 am GMT
  • SNB head Jordan’s speech at 9:30 am GMT
  • Canadian CPI figures at 12:30 pm GMT
  • FOMC member Bostic’s speech at 5:35 pm GMT
  • FOMC member Barr’s speech at 6:45 pm GMT
  • New Zealand global dairy trade auction coming up
  • Japanese trade balance at 11:50 pm GMT

The spotlight could be on the Canadian dollar today, as the economy gears up to print its July CPI readings that are likely to impact the odds of further BOC easing.

Do keep your eyes and ears peeled for speeches by a couple of FOMC members (Bostic and Barr) also since their remarks could still influence market expectations for the Jackson Hole Symposium and the September Fed decision.