Risk-off vibes returned to the financial markets midweek, yet crude oil still managed to rake in decent gains.
What’s up with that and how did the rest of the asset classes perform?
Here’s a quick rundown of the headlines and economic updates that affected the markets:
Headlines:
- Chinese trade surplus in July: $84.7 billion ($97.5 billion expected, $99.1 billion previous) as imports and exports rose 6.5% year-on-year
- German industrial production in June: 1.4% m/m (1.0% expected, previous reading downgraded from -2.5% to -3.0%)
- Swiss National Bank foreign currency reserves fell from 712 billion CHF to 704 billion CHF
- Canadian Ivey PMI in July: 57.6 (60.0 expected, 62.5 previous)
- EIA crude oil inventories fell 3.7 million barrels (-1.6M expected, -3.4M previous)
- BOC Summary of Deliberations revealed that policymakers are worried that a weaker jobs market will delay the recovery in consumer spending and that high rates will derail growth
- U.S. consumer credit in July fell from $13.9 billion to $8.9 billion vs. $9.8 billion consensus
- BOJ Summary of Opinions acknowledged that Japanese economy recovered moderately but that private consumption has not been so strong
- BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida reiterated that they would avoid raising rates while the financial market is unstable and that they would monitor the impact on prices and the overall economy first
Broad Market Price Action:
Investors still seemed to be in a somber mood midweek, as the risk rebound from the previous day did not last throughout Wednesday’s trading sessions.
Bitcoin traded briefly close to the $57,000 handle but retreated from the resistance once again to close a little over 2% lower for the day while gold also struggled to keep its head above water. U.S. equity indices also closed in the red, dragged by consumer discretionary sector and another set of downbeat earnings data.
Crude oil, in contrast, had a pretty solid run thanks to geopolitical concerns in the Middle East bolstering global supply concerns. The commodity went on to extend its gains when the EIA reported a larger than expected draw in stockpiles, easing fears of subdued demand.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Risk-taking from the previous New York session carried over to a positive start for higher-yielding currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi, before sideways price action and risk-off flows returned.
USD/JPY veered away from the rest of the major pairs once more, as not-so-hawkish remarks from BOJ official Uchida forced the yen to cough up its earlier winnings. His remarks downplayed the possibility of further tightening from the central bank in the near-term since he cited that they’ll wait for the financial market to stabilize before considering any additional policy adjustments.
The Swiss franc also appeared to return some of its earlier safe-haven winnings before cruising sideways right around the New York session.
Meanwhile, the BOC Summary of Deliberations revealed that policymakers concerned about the impact of high interest rates on growth and how the weak jobs market could further dampen spending, but the release seemed to have a limited impact on the Loonie.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- RBA Governor Bullock’s speech at 2:40 am GMT
- New Zealand’s inflation expectations at 3:00 am GMT
- Japanese Economy Watchers sentiment index at 5:00 am GMT
- U.S. weekly initial jobless claims at 12:30 pm GMT
- FOMC member Barkin’s speech at 7:00 pm GMT
The spotlight could shift back to the strength in the New Zealand economy, as the country will be releasing its quarterly inflation expectations figure during the Asian trading session.
Later in the day, dollar volatility could once again pick up during the release of the initial jobless claims figure, which tends to spark notable intraday moves.