Even with Australian and European banks closed for the holiday on Monday, financial markets enjoyed some risk-on flows thanks to optimism surrounding trade talks between the U.S. and China in London.

Crude oil got an additional boost from reports revealing that the OPEC+ only managed a smaller increase in output than targeted while bitcoin was able to surge back above the $110K mark.

Here are headlines you may have missed in the last trading sessions!

Headlines:

• New Zealand Manufacturing Sales for March 31, 2025: 10.0% y/y (2.9% y/y forecast; 0.8% y/y previous)
• Japan GDP Growth Rate Final for March 31, 2025: 0.0% q/q (-0.2% q/q forecast; 0.6% q/q previous); -0.2% y/y (-0.7% y/y forecast; 2.2% y/y previous)
• Japan Current Account for April 2025: 2,258.0B (2,300.0B forecast; 3,678.1B previous)
• Japan GDP Price Index Final for March 31, 2025: 3.3% y/y (3.3% y/y forecast; 2.9% y/y previous)
• Japan Bank Lending for May 2025: 2.4% y/y (2.2% y/y forecast; 2.4% y/y previous)
• Japanese gov’t sources told Reuters that the Ministry of Finance is considering buying back some super-long bonds issued at low interest rates
• China Consumer Prices Index Growth Rate for May 2025: -0.2% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous); -0.1% y/y (-0.2% y/y forecast; -0.1% y/y previous)
• China PPI for May 2025: -3.3% y/y (-2.6% y/y forecast; -2.7% y/y previous)
• China Balance of Trade for May 2025: 103.22B (100.0B forecast; 96.18B previous)
  • China Exports for May 2025: 4.8% y/y (4.0% y/y forecast; 8.1% y/y previous)
  • China Imports for May 2025: -3.4% y/y (-1.0% y/y forecast; -0.2% y/y previous)
• Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook for May 2025: 44.8 (42.0 forecast; 42.7 previous)
• Reuters report revealed that OPEC+ increased output by only 150K bpd in May vs. targeted 411K bpd level
• U.S. and China talks in London were reportedly “fruitful” and will resume the next day
• WSJ reported that Trump gave US officials leeway to lift technology export controls in China
• U.S. Wholesale Inventories for April 2025: 0.2% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; 0.4% m/m previous)
• U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations for May 2025: 3.2% (3.6% forecast; 3.6% previous)

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

A bit of caution was in play as markets opened on Monday, with traders digesting trade-related developments over the weekend and mixed Chinese inflation data.

China’s May headline CPI turned out slightly better than expected with another 0.1% year-on-year dip, but the PPI figure pointed to much weaker price pressures down the line as the annual reading slipped from -2.7% to -3.3%.

Investors appeared anxious as the US and China started talks in London, dragging crude oil lower until the start of the London session while safe-haven gold advanced. Treasury yields and the dollar index were also on the back foot since a bit of “Sell America” sentiment lingered on doubts that concrete developments will be announced right away.

WTI crude oil soon made quite the turnaround when the Reuters secondary report on oil output for May revealed that the OPEC+ only managed to squeeze out 150K bpd in additional production versus the planned increase of 411K bpd.

A bit of risk-taking also returned to the markets soon after, leading gold to turn slightly lower and US equity futures to recover back to positive territory, as US-China talks were reportedly “fruitful” and set to resume the next day in London.

US equity indices were able to stay mostly afloat for the rest of the New York session, despite a selloff in Apple shares following a “meh” WWDC event, and close with meager gains for the day. The S&P 500 index edged 0.09% higher while the Nasdaq scored a 0.31% win.

Bitcoin was the big winner for the day, with BTC/USD clawing its way back above the key $110K handle on reports that MicroStrategy raised $1B through a stock offering to fund more bitcoin purchases.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView

Price action among dollar pairs was in sync for the most part of the day, with the US currency initially suffering a safe-haven selloff while traders remained optimistic about trade talks between the US and China in London.

Mixed Chinese inflation data also appeared to contribute to the risk rallies, although dollar pairs started treading sideways upon seeing stronger than expected trade balance from China, which reflected a sharper than expected increase in exports and a deeper slump in imports.

Initial reports suggesting that US-China talks were “fruitful” and that Trump already directed some officials to lift technology export controls allowed the dollar to turn higher across the board towards the end of the London session.

However, USD rallies peaked a few hours into the New York session, likely weighed down by weaker than expected consumer inflation expectations that fueled the dovish Fed narrative.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

• U.K. Employment Change for April 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
  • U.K. Average Earnings (3Mo/Yr)
  • U.K. Unemployment Rate for April 2025
  • U.K. Claimant Count Change for May 2025
• Japan Machine Tool Orders for May 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
• Swiss Consumer Confidence for May 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
• U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index for May 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
• U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change for June 6, 2025 at 8:30 pm GMT
• New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for April 2025 at 10:45 pm GMT
• Japan PPI for May 2025 at 11:50 pm GMT

Stronger market volatility could come in play today as several markets in Europe reopen and the U.K. economy gears up to print its May jobs report.

There’s not much in the way of top-tier data points during the New York session but as always, keep your eyes and ears peeled for trade-related headlines while investors await more significant announcements after US and China talks resume in London today.

As always, stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!