The US Department of Energy has revised its forecast for US crude oil production slightly downwards for this year and next, Commerzbank’s commodity strategist Carsten Fritsch notes.

OPEC+ may have some scope to increase production

“It now expects an increase of 300 thousand barrels per day for 2024 and 460 thousand barrels per day for 2025. Production from September onwards is expected to be lower than previously anticipated, which is likely due to the lower oil price level.”

“Contrary to the EIA’s forecast a month ago, the production level of 14 million barrels per day is no longer expected to be reached by the end of 2025. The increase in production expected by the EIA through the end of 2025 is primarily driven by the largest shale oil deposit, the Permian Basin, which accounts for almost half of total US crude oil production.”

“The above-mentioned production increases would cover just under a third of the increases in global oil demand expected by the EIA this year and next year. Based on these forecasts, OPEC+ would therefore have some scope to increase production.”